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[escepticos] Aumento en credulidad



Hace un tiempo alguien pregunto si habia algun estudio que 
confirmara que la credulidad ha ido en aumento con el tiempo.  
Aqui hay uno que compara 1976 con 1997.


 NEW POLL POINTS TO INCREASE IN PARANORMAL BELIEF
 Matt Nisbet

 Are paranormal beliefs on the rise? Turn on the television,
 listen to the
radio or browse the best seller shelves and you'll notice an
apparent explosion in the quantity and popularity of mass media
paranormal presentations.  Televised episodes of the immensely
popular X Files draw between 17-25 million viewers.  On radio,
Art Bell's fantasy-laden Coast to Coast AM, with an average of
8.75 million listeners tuning in per week, is ranked number four
among American radio talk shows. Paranormal popularity even
extends to book sales.  Dubbed a "publishing miracle" and fueled
by appearances on Oprah Winfrey and Larry King Live, psychic
medium James Van Praagh's Talking to Heaven has been on the New
York Times non-fiction best seller list for months.

 Now a recent Yankelovich Partners poll lends further support to
 the notion
that belief in the paranormal is on the rise.  Published in an
April 20 USA Today Snapshot titled "Belief in the Beyond", a
1997 poll compared current belief in paranormal phenomena with
belief levels measured in 1976.

 "Which if any of the following do you believe at least to some
 degree?"

 Spiritualism         1997: 52%  , 1976: 12%
 Faith Healing       1997: 45%,  1976 10%
 Astrology            1997: 37%, 1976: 17%
 UFOs                 1997: 30%, 1976: 24%
 Reincarnation:     1997: 25%, 1976: 9%
 Fortune Telling     1997: 14%,  1976: 4%

 (1976 N=8,709  1997 N=1,000  Margin of error = +/- 3-5%)

 Maria Miller, Director of Client Services for Yankelovich
 Partners, deems the poll
an indication of a "significant increase in paranormal belief."
According to Miller, other studies by Yankelovich have indicated
that Americans are now trying to "find something in their lives
beyond the material." She points out that one source for growth
in paranormal and spiritual belief might be the evolving
attitudes of
 aging Baby Boomers.  As the generation grows older, they
 increasingly seek to get
in touch with themselves.  Miller cites other Yankelovich polls
that show increased consumer spending in areas that bring
internal reward.  When asked about the recent increase in media
presentations of the paranormal, Miller believes the reason
simple: "The public wants it, they're looking for it."

 The Yankelovich results are difficult to verify since other
 polls conducted
by the Gallup Organization and Roper Reports indicate relatively
little change in belief for the topics asked by Yankelovich. 
Differences may be explained by the use of different wording in
questions and different descriptions for paranormal topics. 
Both the Gallup and Roper Reports polls also vary across
questions as to whether there are comparable results dating back
to the 1970's.

 Tom W. Clark of the Chicago-based National Opinion Research
 Center adds that
the manner in which questions are asked can effect results. 
"What prior questions were asked?  What is the context effect?
Often, prior questions can suppress or buoy an answer."  Clark
also notes that it is important to examine the
representativeness of the poll sample.  "If those polled are
made up of more than one socioeconomic class or ethnicity it can
bias the answers."

 In 1992, in a paper titled "Phantom Changes on Paranormal
 Beliefs", Clark
criticized a 1990 Gallup poll that showed apparent substantial
growth in belief of certain paranormal phenomena as a
"methodological artifact."  He cited differences in response
options and question wording between the 1990 poll and the
comparison Gallup poll from 1978.  "As a result," Clark wrote
"despite Gallup's claims, there is no evidence that belief in
the paranormal has increased over the last decade."

 The measurement of society-wide paranormal beliefs, their
 change over time
and their relation to the media merits on-going study.  The best
available polls and research comparing current levels of belief
to the 1970's are inconclusive.  Meanwhile, there is continued
debate over whether paranormal beliefs are media-driven.  A
recent study conducted by Purdue University Professor Glenn
Sparks reveals a direct correlation between credulous media
portrayals and increase in
 viewer belief.

 Little debate, however, surrounds the tremendous marketability
 of paranormal
themes.  Globally profit-driven media conglomerates, like Rupert
Murdoch's NewsCorp, seek universally understood storylines that
can be easily exported overseas and translated into foreign
languages.  Just short of sex and violence, the paranormal
sells.  Along with Baywatch and Zena: Warrior Princess, we can
expect programs like X-Files, Independence Day and Psi-Factor
for years to come.


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