Re: [escepticos] No, si al final ni calentamiento ni nada...

["F. Perfectti" <fperfect@...>]

At 04:07 03/03/2002 +0000, Enrique Reyes wrote:

> Pero no deja de
> ser cierto que hoy por hoy parece entenderse ampliamente como una verdad
> bien establecida que el calentamiento global existe (en el sentido de
> fenómeno nuevo) y que está provocado por la actividad humana. Y esas son
> dos afirmaciones de caracter científico que no han sido científicamente
> establecidas más allá de toda duda razonable.

Hola,  no es que sepa mucho del tema, pero creo que hay cierto consenso 
científico en que hay calentamiento global debido a actividades humanas. Ya 
se que hay críticos dentro de la comunidad científica (también los hay para 
el caso del virus del sida),  pero la opinión del estamento científico es 
esa. Basta hacer una búsqueda es What's news:

"2. GLOBAL WARMING: IS THE SCIENTIFIC DEBATE COOLING DOWN?
The National Academy this week delivered a report on global warming, 
requested by the Bush administration. While emphasizing the need for 
additional climate research to reduce uncertainties, the report concluded 
that global warming has taken place in the last 50 years as a result of 
human activity. According to the report, this conclusion "accurately 
reflects the current thinking of the scientific community." Indeed, there 
are hints of a scientific consensus. Rather than scoffing at the idea, 
critics now seem to argue that if there is warming, it's probably good for 
us."

"2. CLIMATE CHANGE: GEOPHYSICISTS PREPARE TO TAKE A POSITION.
A committee of the 34,000 member American Geophysical Union has drafted a 
statement of the organization's position on global climate change. While 
stressing the uncertainties in climate predictions, the statement says 
anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are affecting the 
global climate. Unlike the OISM petition, the AGU statement does not 
advocate a global experiment to find out what further increases would do. 
Instead, the statement calls on scientific organizations to urge all 
nations to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. "

" 3. GLOBAL WARMING: TWO NEW STUDIES BOLSTER THE GREENHOUSE CASE.
This still won't end the debate, but the new results, released on 
Wednesday, report strong evidence that the oceans are warming, and human 
activity is a major cause. In both studies, published this week in Science, 
groups from the National Oceanographic Data Center and the Scripps 
Institution of Oceanography found a direct connection between emissions of 
greenhouse gases and warming of the oceans. One of the study leaders 
commented that, "the signal is so bold and big that you don't have do any 
fancy statistics to beat it out of the data." At least, the models used to 
predict future warming succeeded in getting past ocean warming right, over 
a 50 year period. Not many studies have passed such a test. The new results 
come only weeks after the controversial decision by President Bush to 
withdraw from the 1997 Kyoto accord. "


Lo que si esta puede ser magufo es la percepción del problema. Cualquier 
tormenta, inundación, etc es inmediatamente achacada al calentamiento 
global (o al agujero de ozono, puesto que popularmente es lo mismo), y por 
tanto a la acción antrópica. Quizás ahí radique el tema magufo, pero no 
creo que la comunidad científica en conjunto este actuando mal, aunque como 
bien dices hay todavía mucho grado de incertidumbre, sobretodo en como va a 
ir respondiendo el sistema al aumento de CO2 atmosférico.


Saludos



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F. Perfectti                     fperfect en supercable.es